ATP tennis predict — Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Duncan Chan

Canada

42.16%

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Argentina

57.84%

Average Odds

3.37 / 1.32

Market probability

28.14% / 71.86%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Agustin Tirante is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1714 vs 1612), a stronger serve (65.1% vs 61.1% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1611 vs 1593).

Player Comparison

1611.9 Elo 1714.2

1593.1 Elo (surface) 1611.0

1 Wins 60

1 Wins (surface) 23

1 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.908 Dominance ratio 0.896

606 Rank 65

21.0 Age 25.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Duncan Chan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Duncan Chan Thiago Agustin Tirante

1st Serve In %

48.0%

55.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

76.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.4%

57.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.0%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.6%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

28.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.8%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.68

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Duncan Chan Thiago Agustin Tirante

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

69.4%

Break Points Converted %

60.0%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.2%

54.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.3%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Duncan Chan 0 – 0 Thiago Agustin Tirante

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Thiago Agustin Tirante #65

Duncan Chan #606

6-3 1-6 7-6

6 Aces 5

6 Double Faults 6

93 Service Points 76

58 First Serve In 36

40 First Serve Won 28

21 Second Serve Won 22

3 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 6

29 Winners 17

40 Unforced Errors 38

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Prediction