ATP tennis predict — Duncan Chan vs Taro Daniel

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Duncan Chan

Canada

28.21%

Taro Daniel

Japan

71.79%

Average Odds

2.52 / 1.45

Market probability

36.52% / 63.48%

Why This Prediction?

Taro Daniel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1772 vs 1585), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1694 vs 1557) and more wins on hard courts (129 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1585.0 Elo 1771.6

1557.3 Elo (surface) 1694.1

7 Wins (Challenger) 242

7 Wins (surface) 118

7 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.995 Dominance ratio 0.971

486 Rank 186

21.1 Age 33.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Duncan Chan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Taro Daniel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Duncan Chan Taro Daniel

1st Serve In %

48.0%

64.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.4%

45.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.0%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.6%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

29.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.8%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Duncan Chan Taro Daniel

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

51.6%

Break Points Converted %

60.0%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.2%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.3%

54.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Duncan Chan 0 – 0 Taro Daniel

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-19

1. round

Taro Daniel #186

Duncan Chan #486

6-3 6-2

5 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 0

51 Service Points 46

34 First Serve In 27

22 First Serve Won 20

5 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.5

Duncan Chan vs Taro Daniel — Prediction