ATP tennis predict — Duncan Chan vs Keaton Hance

Challenger Hard Columbus 3 challenger · qualification - round of 16 17:30

Predicted probability

Duncan Chan

Canada

81.07%

Keaton Hance

USA

18.93%

Average Odds

1.61 / 2.19

Market probability

57.63% / 42.37%

Why This Prediction?

Duncan Chan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1628 vs 1595), more career match wins (8 vs 2) and better recent form (8 wins in his last 15 matches vs 2).

Player Comparison

1627.9 Elo 1595.2

1589.4 Elo (surface) 1619.1

8 Wins (Challenger) 2

8 Wins (surface) 2

8 Last 15 form 2

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.004 Dominance ratio 0.850

489 Rank 790

21.2 Age None

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Duncan Chan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Keaton Hance

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-09-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Duncan Chan Keaton Hance

1st Serve In %

48.0%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.21

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.8%

57.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.8%

45.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.56

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Duncan Chan Keaton Hance

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

—

Break Points Converted %

60.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.7%

67.6%

Break Points Converted %

43.1%

30.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Duncan Chan and Keaton Hance have never played each other.

Duncan Chan vs Keaton Hance — Prediction