ATP tennis predict — Duncan Chan vs Colton Smith

Challenger Hard Columbus 3 challenger · 1. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Duncan Chan

Canada

42.09%

Colton Smith

USA

57.91%

Average Odds

- / -

Market probability

- / -

Why This Prediction?

Colton Smith is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1682 vs 1628), a higher Elo rating (1723 vs 1660) and more career match wins (49 vs 9).

Player Comparison

1660.2 Elo 1722.8

1628.1 Elo (surface) 1682.0

9 Wins (Challenger) 49

9 Wins (surface) 38

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.004 Dominance ratio 1.047

489 Rank 211

21.2 Age 23.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Duncan Chan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Colton Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Duncan Chan Colton Smith

1st Serve In %

48.0%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.4%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.2%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

68.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.8%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.2%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Duncan Chan Colton Smith

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

60.0%

38.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.3%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Duncan Chan and Colton Smith have never played each other.

Duncan Chan vs Colton Smith — Prediction