ATP tennis predict — Duncan Chan vs Cesar Bouchelaghem

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Duncan Chan

Canada

65.65%

Cesar Bouchelaghem

France

34.35%

Average Odds

1.58 / 2.24

Market probability

58.64% / 41.36%

Why This Prediction?

Duncan Chan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1562 vs 1455), the advantage of playing in his home country and more career match wins (5 vs 3).

Player Comparison

1561.7 Elo 1454.7

1535.0 Elo (surface) 1506.1

5 Wins (Challenger) 3

5 Wins (surface) 3

5 Last 15 form 3

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.864 Dominance ratio 0.807

665 Rank 507

21.0 Age 22.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Duncan Chan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Cesar Bouchelaghem

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Duncan Chan Cesar Bouchelaghem

1st Serve In %

48.0%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.21

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.0%

61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.5%

68.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.6%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.8%

43.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Duncan Chan Cesar Bouchelaghem

Break Points Saved %

57.9%

—

Break Points Converted %

60.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.2%

60.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.3%

39.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Duncan Chan 0 – 0 Cesar Bouchelaghem

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-20

qualification - round of 16

Duncan Chan #665

Cesar Bouchelaghem #507

3-6 7-6 6-3

8 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 10

105 Service Points 123

75 First Serve In 77

48 First Serve Won 51

13 Second Serve Won 18

8 Break Points Saved 14

13 Break Points Faced 18

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Duncan Chan vs Cesar Bouchelaghem — Prediction