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Diogo Marques vs Oleksii Krutykh — Prediction

Challenger Clay Maia challenger · qualification - 1. round 16:30

Predicted probability

Diogo Marques

Portugal

8.72%

Oleksii Krutykh

Ukraine

91.28%

Average Odds

10.01  /  1.03

Market probability

9.33%  /  90.67%

Why This Prediction?

Oleksii Krutykh is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1633 vs 1360), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1623 vs 1379) and more wins on clay courts (81 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1360.4 Elo 1633.3
1378.8 Elo (surface) 1623.0
1 Wins (Challenger) 108
0 Wins (surface) 81
1 Last 15 form 10
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.608 Dominance ratio 0.980
1362 Rank 456
27.2 Age 26.6
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Diogo Marques

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Oleksii Krutykh

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Diogo Marques Oleksii Krutykh

1st Serve In %

—
58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—
67.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—
50.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—
25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—
54.9%

Aces per Service Game

—
0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

—
0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.0%
57.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.2%
66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

35.7%
51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%
29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%
48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.19
0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27
0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Diogo Marques Oleksii Krutykh

Break Points Saved %

—
56.1%

Break Points Converted %

—
34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.3%
60.0%

Break Points Converted %

38.7%
46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Diogo Marques and Oleksii Krutykh have never played each other.

Diogo Marques — Last 8

L W L L L L L L

Oleksii Krutykh — Last 10

L W W W L W L W W L