ATP tennis predict — Diego Dedura Palomero vs Thiago Monteiro

Challenger Clay Szczecin challenger · QF 13:00

Predicted probability

Diego Dedura Palomero

Germany

70.52%

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

29.48%

Average Odds

1.77 / 1.95

Market probability

52.42% / 47.58%

Why This Prediction?

Diego Dedura Palomero is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1825 vs 1767), a higher Elo rating (1808 vs 1766) and a stronger return game (36.2% vs 35.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1808.1 Elo 1766.3

1825.5 Elo (surface) 1767.0

48 Wins (Challenger) 256

44 Wins (surface) 242

11 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.018 Dominance ratio 1.143

188 Rank 282

18.5 Age 32.3

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Diego Dedura Palomero

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Diego Dedura Palomero Thiago Monteiro

1st Serve In %

66.9%

66.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

48.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.5%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.9%

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.8%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.05

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Diego Dedura Palomero Thiago Monteiro

Break Points Saved %

65.5%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

28.4%

40.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Diego Dedura Palomero 0 – 1 Thiago Monteiro

Clay Szczecin challenger · 2026-09-18

QF

Thiago Monteiro #282

Diego Dedura Palomero #188

6-4 6-2

0 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

23 First Serve Won 24

7 Second Serve Won 10

8 Break Points Saved 1

13 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Clay Santiago CH · 2026-03-09

R16

Thiago Monteiro #232

Diego Dedura Palomero #291

7-6(7) 6-3

3 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 0

67 Service Points 77

39 First Serve In 53

32 First Serve Won 34

18 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Diego Dedura Palomero vs Thiago Monteiro — Prediction