ATP tennis predict — Diego Dedura Palomero vs Otto Virtanen

Challenger Clay Tampere challenger · F

Predicted probability

Diego Dedura Palomero

Germany

62.80%

Otto Virtanen

Finland

37.20%

Average Odds

2.51 / 1.49

Market probability

37.25% / 62.75%

Why This Prediction?

Diego Dedura Palomero is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1755 vs 1601), a stronger return game (39.9% vs 33.1% of return points won) and more wins on clay courts (37 vs 16).

Player Comparison

1724.7 Elo 1800.1

1755.0 Elo (surface) 1600.6

41 Wins (Challenger) 124

37 Wins (surface) 16

11 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.008 Dominance ratio 0.891

252 Rank 125

18.4 Age 25.1

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Diego Dedura Palomero

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Otto Virtanen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–8L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Diego Dedura Palomero Otto Virtanen

1st Serve In %

66.9%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

76.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.8%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.5%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.9%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

52.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.8%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

44.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.05

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Diego Dedura Palomero Otto Virtanen

Break Points Saved %

65.5%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

28.4%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

57.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

30.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Diego Dedura Palomero 0 – 0 Otto Virtanen

Clay Tampere challenger · 2026-07-26

F

Diego Dedura Palomero #206

Otto Virtanen #210

6-3 6-7 6-3

2 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 4

104 Service Points 77

77 First Serve In 42

52 First Serve Won 33

20 Second Serve Won 24

3 Break Points Saved 0

3 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Diego Dedura Palomero vs Otto Virtanen — Prediction