ATP tennis predict — Denis Yevseyev vs Yanki Erel

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Denis Yevseyev

Kazakhstan

43.57%

Yanki Erel

Turkey

56.43%

Average Odds

3.47 / 1.29

Market probability

27.10% / 72.90%

Why This Prediction?

Yanki Erel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1589 vs 1483), a stronger serve (62.9% vs 56.6% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating (1544 vs 1509).

Player Comparison

1508.6 Elo 1543.6

1482.7 Elo (surface) 1589.5

200 Wins (Challenger) 40

126 Wins (surface) 32

6 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.023 Dominance ratio 0.953

439 Rank 280

33.2 Age 25.9

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Denis Yevseyev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Yanki Erel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Yevseyev Yanki Erel

1st Serve In %

63.3%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.2%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.1%

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

70.2%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.4%

66.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.5%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Yevseyev Yanki Erel

Break Points Saved %

53.3%

61.3%

Break Points Converted %

45.9%

52.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.8%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

35.5%

29.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Denis Yevseyev 1 – 0 Yanki Erel

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Yanki Erel #280

Denis Yevseyev #439

6-4 4-6 6-1

3 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 2

97 Service Points 80

71 First Serve In 59

45 First Serve Won 43

14 Second Serve Won 13

7 Break Points Saved 4

10 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Hard Astana CH · 2023-07-24

SF

Denis Yevseyev #412

Yanki Erel #357

6-4 6-4

4 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 4

64 Service Points 80

40 First Serve In 41

27 First Serve Won 22

13 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Denis Yevseyev vs Yanki Erel — Prediction