ATP tennis predict — Denis Yevseyev vs Noel Larwig

Challenger Hard Hamburg challenger · qualification - 1. round 15:00

Predicted probability

Denis Yevseyev

Kazakhstan

87.84%

Noel Larwig

Germany

12.16%

Average Odds

1.18 / 4.04

Market probability

77.39% / 22.61%

Why This Prediction?

Denis Yevseyev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1499 vs 1345), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1473 vs 1392) and more career match wins (200 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1499.0 Elo 1345.1

1473.4 Elo (surface) 1392.4

200 Wins (Challenger) 0

126 Wins (surface) 0

6 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.079 Dominance ratio 0.677

439 Rank 1260

33.2 Age 24.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Denis Yevseyev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Noel Larwig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Yevseyev Noel Larwig

1st Serve In %

63.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

65.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.28

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

70.2%

57.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.4%

60.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.5%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.14

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Yevseyev Noel Larwig

Break Points Saved %

53.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

45.9%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.8%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

35.5%

44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Denis Yevseyev 0 – 0 Noel Larwig

Hard Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-09

qualification - 1. round

Denis Yevseyev #439

Noel Larwig #1260

7-6 4-6 7-5

0 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 7

105 Service Points 105

97 First Serve In 57

61 First Serve Won 34

4 Second Serve Won 29

3 Break Points Saved 8

8 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Denis Yevseyev vs Noel Larwig — Prediction