ATP tennis predict — Denis Shapovalov vs Sho Shimabukuro

ATP Hard Tokyo · 1. round 03:00

Predicted probability

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

72.81%

Sho Shimabukuro

Japan

27.19%

Average Odds

1.22 / 4.16

Market probability

77.32% / 22.68%

Why This Prediction?

Denis Shapovalov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1940 vs 1778), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1958 vs 1692) and more wins on hard courts (201 vs 29).

Player Comparison

1939.9 Elo 1777.8

1958.0 Elo (surface) 1692.0

265 Wins 40

201 Wins (surface) 29

10 Last 15 form 5

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.034 Dominance ratio 1.348

46 Rank 108

27.5 Age 29.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Sho Shimabukuro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Shapovalov Sho Shimabukuro

1st Serve In %

56.4%

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.2%

60.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.1%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.5%

54.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.3%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.8%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

32.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

51.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Shapovalov Sho Shimabukuro

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

66.0%

Break Points Converted %

47.3%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

70.1%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Denis Shapovalov 1 – 0 Sho Shimabukuro

Hard Shanghai Masters · 2024-10-02

Q2

Denis Shapovalov #102

Sho Shimabukuro #181

4-6 3-1 RET

6 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 0

36 Service Points 37

25 First Serve In 22

19 First Serve Won 16

9 Second Serve Won 9

2 Break Points Saved 0

3 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Denis Shapovalov vs Sho Shimabukuro — Prediction