ATP tennis predict — Denis Shapovalov vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

ATP Hard Los Cabos · R16

Predicted probability

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

61.97%

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Mexico

38.03%

Average Odds

1.40 / 2.92

Market probability

67.59% / 32.41%

Why This Prediction?

Denis Shapovalov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1738 vs 1567), a higher Elo rating (1729 vs 1604) and more wins on hard courts (192 vs 8).

Player Comparison

1729.5 Elo 1604.3

1738.2 Elo (surface) 1567.4

256 Wins 10

192 Wins (surface) 8

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.816 Dominance ratio 0.916

68 Rank 320

27.3 Age 21.3

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Shapovalov Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

1st Serve In %

56.3%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.45

0.47

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.3%

67.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.8%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Shapovalov Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Break Points Saved %

59.8%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

44.4%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

71.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Denis Shapovalov 0 – 0 Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-30

R16

Denis Shapovalov #68

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #320

6-3 6-2

7 Aces 0

5 Double Faults 3

48 Service Points 40

31 First Serve In 17

28 First Serve Won 11

8 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 4

27 Winners 6

29 Unforced Errors 14

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Denis Shapovalov vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez — Prediction