ATP tennis predict — Denis Shapovalov vs Rinky Hijikata

ATP Hard Los Cabos · 1. round

Predicted probability

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

48.95%

Rinky Hijikata

Australia

51.05%

Average Odds

1.59 / 2.34

Market probability

59.54% / 40.46%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1718.2 Elo 1755.2

1731.3 Elo (surface) 1579.5

255 Wins 91

191 Wins (surface) 66

5 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.768 Dominance ratio 1.068

68 Rank 93

27.3 Age 25.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Rinky Hijikata

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Shapovalov Rinky Hijikata

1st Serve In %

56.3%

57.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

51.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.45

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.3%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.8%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Shapovalov Rinky Hijikata

Break Points Saved %

59.8%

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

44.4%

43.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

57.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

54.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Denis Shapovalov 1 – 0 Rinky Hijikata

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-29

1. round

Denis Shapovalov #68

Rinky Hijikata #93

2-6 6-3 6-2

6 Aces 1

9 Double Faults 8

81 Service Points 82

39 First Serve In 38

30 First Serve Won 25

21 Second Serve Won 22

5 Break Points Saved 8

8 Break Points Faced 12

31 Winners 14

49 Unforced Errors 36

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Hard Adelaide 1 · 2023-01-02

R32

Denis Shapovalov #18

Rinky Hijikata #164

2-6 6-4 6-3

7 Aces 2

9 Double Faults 5

77 Service Points 93

42 First Serve In 58

30 First Serve Won 43

18 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 8

8 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Denis Shapovalov vs Rinky Hijikata — Prediction