ATP tennis predict — Denis Shapovalov vs Luca Van Assche

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

54.23%

Luca Van Assche

France

45.77%

Average Odds

1.69 / 2.17

Market probability

56.22% / 43.78%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1749.4 Elo 1800.7

1752.2 Elo (surface) 1660.9

261 Wins 59

197 Wins (surface) 32

7 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.030 Dominance ratio 1.103

48 Rank 40

27.4 Age 22.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Luca Van Assche

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Shapovalov Luca Van Assche

1st Serve In %

56.3%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.45

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.3%

55.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.8%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Shapovalov Luca Van Assche

Break Points Saved %

59.8%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

44.4%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

48.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Denis Shapovalov 1 – 0 Luca Van Assche

Hard US Open · 2026-09-02

2. round

Denis Shapovalov #48

Luca Van Assche #40

6-0 6-4 7-6

11 Aces 4

9 Double Faults 4

106 Service Points 89

61 First Serve In 48

45 First Serve Won 27

21 Second Serve Won 19

8 Break Points Saved 2

11 Break Points Faced 9

50 Winners 19

36 Unforced Errors 20

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Clay Roland Garros · 2024-05-27

R128

Denis Shapovalov #118

Luca Van Assche #103

6-3 6-4 6-4

8 Aces 1

5 Double Faults 1

92 Service Points 76

52 First Serve In 44

41 First Serve Won 32

24 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Denis Shapovalov vs Luca Van Assche — Prediction