ATP tennis predict — Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina

ATP Hard Los Cabos · QF

Predicted probability

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

62.43%

Dalibor Svrcina

Czech Republic

37.57%

Average Odds

1.45 / 2.72

Market probability

65.23% / 34.77%

Why This Prediction?

Denis Shapovalov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1745 vs 1523), a higher Elo rating (1736 vs 1718) and a stronger serve (68.5% vs 54.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1736.2 Elo 1718.4

1744.5 Elo (surface) 1523.0

257 Wins 34

193 Wins (surface) 27

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.836 Dominance ratio 1.175

68 Rank 116

27.3 Age 23.8

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Dalibor Svrcina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Shapovalov Dalibor Svrcina

1st Serve In %

56.3%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

68.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

43.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

36.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

57.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.45

0.53

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.3%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

63.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.8%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Shapovalov Dalibor Svrcina

Break Points Saved %

59.8%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

44.4%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

53.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

47.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Denis Shapovalov 0 – 0 Dalibor Svrcina

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-31

QF

Denis Shapovalov #68

Dalibor Svrcina #116

6-4 6-2

1 Aces 2

8 Double Faults 6

52 Service Points 73

29 First Serve In 37

20 First Serve Won 18

8 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 10

5 Break Points Faced 16

18 Winners 10

43 Unforced Errors 38

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcina — Prediction