ATP tennis predict — Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Tabilo

ATP Hard Tokyo · R16 03:00

Predicted probability

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

63.12%

Alejandro Tabilo

Chile

36.88%

Average Odds

1.61 / 2.28

Market probability

58.61% / 41.39%

Why This Prediction?

Denis Shapovalov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1962 vs 1897), a stronger return game (39.0% vs 29.5% of return points won) and more wins on hard courts (202 vs 68).

Player Comparison

1945.6 Elo 1976.8

1962.0 Elo (surface) 1897.3

266 Wins 138

202 Wins (surface) 68

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.034 Dominance ratio 0.821

46 Rank 31

27.5 Age 29.3

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alejandro Tabilo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Shapovalov Alejandro Tabilo

1st Serve In %

57.2%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

19.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

43.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.3%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

76.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.8%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Denis Shapovalov Alejandro Tabilo

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

58.1%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

40.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

73.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

43.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Denis Shapovalov and Alejandro Tabilo have never played each other.

Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Tabilo — Prediction