ATP tennis predict — David Poljak vs Jelle Sels

Challenger Clay Porto 2 challenger · qualification - 1. round 14:00

Predicted probability

David Poljak

Czech Republic

31.04%

Jelle Sels

Netherlands

68.96%

Average Odds

2.93 / 1.36

Market probability

31.70% / 68.30%

Why This Prediction?

Jelle Sels is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1561 vs 1348), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1517 vs 1356) and more wins on clay courts (87 vs 22).

Player Comparison

1347.8 Elo 1561.2

1356.1 Elo (surface) 1517.0

48 Wins (Challenger) 158

22 Wins (surface) 87

5 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.266 Dominance ratio 0.761

1101 Rank 538

30.3 Age 31.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

David Poljak

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Jelle Sels

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

David Poljak Jelle Sels

1st Serve In %

—

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

39.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

20.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

40.9%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

59.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

48.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.2%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

David Poljak Jelle Sels

Break Points Saved %

—

51.4%

Break Points Converted %

—

15.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.0%

44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

David Poljak 0 – 1 Jelle Sels

Clay Porto 2 challenger · 2026-08-30

qualification - 1. round

Jelle Sels #546

David Poljak #1110

6-3 3-6 6-4

4 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 3

84 Service Points 77

56 First Serve In 47

36 First Serve Won 35

15 Second Serve Won 19

6 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Hard Mouilleron Le Captif CH · 2022-10-03

R32

Jelle Sels #173

David Poljak #432

5-7 6-4 6-4

3 Aces 7

0 Double Faults 3

89 Service Points 90

49 First Serve In 57

36 First Serve Won 44

24 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

David Poljak vs Jelle Sels — Prediction