ATP tennis predict — David Jorda Sanchis vs Jesper De Jong

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

David Jorda Sanchis

Spain

17.67%

Jesper De Jong

Netherlands

82.33%

Average Odds

4.26 / 1.17

Market probability

21.55% / 78.45%

Why This Prediction?

Jesper De Jong is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1716 vs 1433), a higher Elo rating (1838 vs 1623) and a stronger return game (46.8% vs 34.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1623.4 Elo 1837.9

1433.5 Elo (surface) 1715.9

92 Wins (Challenger) 142

22 Wins (surface) 31

7 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.930 Dominance ratio 1.368

216 Rank 95

32.3 Age 26.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

David Jorda Sanchis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Jesper De Jong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

David Jorda Sanchis Jesper De Jong

1st Serve In %

61.4%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.2%

46.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.9%

52.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.0%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.4%

75.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

38.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.8%

56.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

David Jorda Sanchis Jesper De Jong

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

34.5%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.5%

46.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

David Jorda Sanchis and Jesper De Jong have never played each other.

David Jorda Sanchis vs Jesper De Jong — Prediction