ATP tennis predict — David Goffin vs Mark Lajal

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · 1. round 18:00

Predicted probability

David Goffin

Belgium

27.48%

Mark Lajal

Estonia

72.52%

Average Odds

3.71 / 1.25

Market probability

25.20% / 74.80%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1796 vs 1744), a higher Elo rating (1821 vs 1785) and a stronger return game (35.9% vs 33.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1785.4 Elo 1820.8

1744.5 Elo (surface) 1796.0

122 Wins (Challenger) 142

64 Wins (surface) 128

9 Last 15 form 12

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.970 Dominance ratio 1.039

390 Rank 143

35.8 Age 23.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

David Goffin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

David Goffin Mark Lajal

1st Serve In %

58.2%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

54.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.9%

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.8%

61.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.6%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

57.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

David Goffin Mark Lajal

Break Points Saved %

59.4%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.2%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.4%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

32.2%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

David Goffin 1 – 0 Mark Lajal

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-21

1. round

Mark Lajal #143

David Goffin #390

6-3 6-4

3 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

24 First Serve Won 33

12 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 8

7 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.7

Hard Bergamo CH · 2023-10-30

SF

David Goffin #110

Mark Lajal #217

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4

4 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

100 Service Points 123

73 First Serve In 85

52 First Serve Won 52

13 Second Serve Won 16

4 Break Points Saved 11

6 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

David Goffin vs Mark Lajal — Prediction