ATP tennis predict — Darwin Blanch vs Stefan Kozlov

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · 1. round 22:00

Predicted probability

Darwin Blanch

USA

63.43%

Stefan Kozlov

USA

36.57%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.59

Market probability

64.27% / 35.73%

Why This Prediction?

Darwin Blanch is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (62.5% vs 47.8% of service points won), better recent form (5 wins in his last 15 matches vs 2) and a higher Elo rating (1642 vs 1634).

Player Comparison

1642.1 Elo 1634.2

1551.7 Elo (surface) 1602.9

29 Wins (Challenger) 219

17 Wins (surface) 165

7 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.075 Dominance ratio 1.209

245 Rank 291

19.0 Age 28.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Darwin Blanch

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Stefan Kozlov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Darwin Blanch Stefan Kozlov

1st Serve In %

58.6%

64.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

53.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

38.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.0%

35.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.2%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.2%

66.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.8%

37.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Darwin Blanch Stefan Kozlov

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

49.5%

Break Points Converted %

33.9%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.3%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Darwin Blanch 0 – 1 Stefan Kozlov

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-16

1. round

Darwin Blanch #245

Stefan Kozlov #291

6-3 2-6 7-6

5 Aces 1

7 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

42 First Serve Won 39

24 Second Serve Won 23

6 Break Points Saved 5

10 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Hard Champaign CH · 2025-11-10

QF

Stefan Kozlov #458

Darwin Blanch #297

6-2 6-7(7) 6-3

5 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 6

100 Service Points 106

66 First Serve In 65

46 First Serve Won 37

23 Second Serve Won 24

6 Break Points Saved 6

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Darwin Blanch vs Stefan Kozlov — Prediction