ATP tennis predict — Darwin Blanch vs Bryce Nakashima

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · QF 21:00

Predicted probability

Darwin Blanch

USA

61.92%

Bryce Nakashima

USA

38.08%

Average Odds

1.48 / 2.51

Market probability

62.91% / 37.09%

Why This Prediction?

Darwin Blanch is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1685 vs 1643), more wins on hard courts (5 vs 0) and more career match wins (31 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1684.5 Elo 1642.6

1606.5 Elo (surface) 1634.1

31 Wins (Challenger) 5

19 Wins (surface) 5

8 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.075 Dominance ratio 1.063

245 Rank 711

19.0 Age 22.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Darwin Blanch

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Bryce Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Darwin Blanch Bryce Nakashima

1st Serve In %

58.6%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.2%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.41

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.7%

57.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.2%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.8%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Darwin Blanch Bryce Nakashima

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

—

Break Points Converted %

33.9%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.3%

71.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

44.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Darwin Blanch 0 – 0 Bryce Nakashima

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-18

QF

Darwin Blanch #245

Bryce Nakashima #711

6-3 6-3

2 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

22 First Serve Won 25

17 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 5

0 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Darwin Blanch vs Bryce Nakashima — Prediction