ATP tennis predict — Daniil Ostapenkov vs Florent Bax

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · R16 12:05

Predicted probability

Daniil Ostapenkov

Belarus

42.18%

Florent Bax

France

57.82%

Average Odds

2.34 / 1.55

Market probability

39.85% / 60.15%

Why This Prediction?

Florent Bax is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (78.0% vs 45.9% of service points won), a higher Elo rating (1513 vs 1475) and fewer double faults per game (0.17 vs 0.28).

Player Comparison

1474.7 Elo 1512.7

1535.1 Elo (surface) 1541.1

11 Wins (Challenger) 38

7 Wins (surface) 24

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.987 Dominance ratio 1.026

533 Rank 247

23.2 Age 27.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Ostapenkov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Florent Bax

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-10.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Ostapenkov Florent Bax

1st Serve In %

52.3%

74.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

59.3%

85.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

34.9%

57.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

35.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.2%

41.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

1.00

Double Faults per Service Game

0.56

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.5%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

69.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.2%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

23.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.8%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Ostapenkov Florent Bax

Break Points Saved %

50.0%

100.0%

Break Points Converted %

63.6%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.2%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

43.2%

27.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Ostapenkov 0 – 0 Florent Bax

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-05

R16

Florent Bax #247

Daniil Ostapenkov #533

6-7 7-6 6-1

7 Aces 9

4 Double Faults 2

104 Service Points 104

53 First Serve In 60

39 First Serve Won 52

27 Second Serve Won 21

2 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Daniil Ostapenkov vs Florent Bax — Prediction