ATP tennis predict — Daniil Medvedev vs Valentin Royer

ATP Hard Hangzhou · R16 04:00

Predicted probability

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

74.38%

Valentin Royer

France

25.62%

Average Odds

1.25 / 3.89

Market probability

75.68% / 24.32%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2079 vs 1851), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2069 vs 1775) and a stronger serve (65.6% vs 62.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2078.6 Elo 1851.0

2069.0 Elo (surface) 1775.2

490 Wins 35

368 Wins (surface) 26

9 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.136 Dominance ratio 0.979

6 Rank 104

30.6 Age 25.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Valentin Royer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Valentin Royer

1st Serve In %

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%

74.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

30.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.4%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

56.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

39.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

60.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Valentin Royer

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

59.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.6%

46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.0%

64.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev and Valentin Royer have never played each other.

Daniil Medvedev vs Valentin Royer — Prediction