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Daniil Medvedev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Prediction

ATP Hard Shanghai · R16 12:00

Predicted probability

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

63.28%

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

36.72%

Average Odds

1.43  /  2.78

Market probability

66.03%  /  33.97%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2117 vs 2041), a stronger return game (39.1% vs 34.4% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2100 vs 1984).

Player Comparison

2116.9 Elo 2041.2
2099.8 Elo (surface) 1984.2
499 Wins 434
377 Wins (surface) 262
12 Last 15 form 11
10 Head-to-head wins 5
1.136 Dominance ratio 0.918
5 Rank 43
30.7 Age 28.2
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 10W–4L · 71.4%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Stefanos Tsitsipas

1st Serve In %

—
57.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

—
73.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—
46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—
21.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—
39.7%

Aces per Service Game

1.12
0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28
0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%
59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%
80.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%
62.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%
29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%
47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.75
0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25
0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Stefanos Tsitsipas

Break Points Saved %

77.8%
59.7%

Break Points Converted %

32.5%
39.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.0%
75.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%
36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev 10 – 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Hard Doha · 2026-02-16

R16

Stefanos Tsitsipas #33

Daniil Medvedev #11

6-3 6-4
4 Aces 3
1 Double Faults 4
60 Service Points 60
45 First Serve In 39
36 First Serve Won 27
8 Second Serve Won 10
0 Break Points Saved 5
0 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Shanghai Masters · 2024-10-02

R16

Daniil Medvedev #5

Stefanos Tsitsipas #12

7-6(3) 6-3
10 Aces 4
3 Double Faults 4
63 Service Points 83
42 First Serve In 52
35 First Serve Won 37
13 Second Serve Won 13
0 Break Points Saved 9
1 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Vienna · 2023-10-23

SF

Daniil Medvedev #3

Stefanos Tsitsipas #7

6-4 7-6(6)
5 Aces 6
2 Double Faults 2
68 Service Points 71
49 First Serve In 42
41 First Serve Won 33
11 Second Serve Won 17
3 Break Points Saved 4
3 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Rome Masters · 2023-05-08

SF

Daniil Medvedev #3

Stefanos Tsitsipas #5

7-5 7-5
2 Aces 3
2 Double Faults 3
62 Service Points 69
36 First Serve In 38
30 First Serve Won 27
12 Second Serve Won 15
0 Break Points Saved 0
2 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Tour Finals · 2022-11-14

RR

Stefanos Tsitsipas #3

Daniil Medvedev #5

6-3 6-7(11) 7-6(1)
9 Aces 16
1 Double Faults 2
103 Service Points 101
77 First Serve In 67
64 First Serve Won 57
14 Second Serve Won 16
0 Break Points Saved 1
1 Break Points Faced 3
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2022-08-15

SF

Stefanos Tsitsipas #7

Daniil Medvedev #1

7-6(6) 3-6 6-3
4 Aces 2
7 Double Faults 11
91 Service Points 106
60 First Serve In 52
49 First Serve Won 34
12 Second Serve Won 32
0 Break Points Saved 4
3 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Australian Open · 2022-01-17

SF

Daniil Medvedev #2

Stefanos Tsitsipas #4

7-6(5) 4-6 6-4 6-1
13 Aces 5
4 Double Faults 1
100 Service Points 120
71 First Serve In 83
61 First Serve Won 56
21 Second Serve Won 23
2 Break Points Saved 8
4 Break Points Faced 12
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Roland Garros · 2021-05-31

QF

Stefanos Tsitsipas #5

Daniil Medvedev #2

6-3 7-6(3) 7-5
3 Aces 5
1 Double Faults 0
102 Service Points 107
66 First Serve In 72
48 First Serve Won 43
27 Second Serve Won 21
6 Break Points Saved 3
8 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Australian Open · 2021-02-08

SF

Daniil Medvedev #4

Stefanos Tsitsipas #6

6-4 6-2 7-5
17 Aces 3
2 Double Faults 3
82 Service Points 101
56 First Serve In 70
49 First Serve Won 43
12 Second Serve Won 13
2 Break Points Saved 4
3 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Tour Finals · 2019-11-11

RR

Stefanos Tsitsipas #6

Daniil Medvedev #4

7-6(5) 6-4
5 Aces 6
0 Double Faults 0
73 Service Points 77
44 First Serve In 53
39 First Serve Won 38
12 Second Serve Won 13
0 Break Points Saved 3
0 Break Points Faced 4
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Shanghai Masters · 2019-10-07

SF

Daniil Medvedev #4

Stefanos Tsitsipas #7

7-6(5) 7-5
6 Aces 9
1 Double Faults 3
67 Service Points 74
43 First Serve In 49
36 First Serve Won 40
16 Second Serve Won 11
4 Break Points Saved 1
5 Break Points Faced 3
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2019-04-15

R16

Daniil Medvedev #14

Stefanos Tsitsipas #8

6-2 1-6 6-4
2 Aces 2
3 Double Faults 2
66 Service Points 78
25 First Serve In 54
20 First Serve Won 37
21 Second Serve Won 9
1 Break Points Saved 4
4 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Basel · 2018-10-22

QF

Daniil Medvedev #20

Stefanos Tsitsipas #16

6-4 3-6 6-3
6 Aces 3
4 Double Faults 1
77 Service Points 86
41 First Serve In 49
35 First Serve Won 34
20 Second Serve Won 23
3 Break Points Saved 3
4 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard US Open · 2018-08-27

R64

Daniil Medvedev #36

Stefanos Tsitsipas #15

6-4 6-3 4-6 6-3
8 Aces 4
2 Double Faults 6
94 Service Points 112
53 First Serve In 55
45 First Serve Won 40
25 Second Serve Won 27
5 Break Points Saved 6
8 Break Points Faced 12
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Miami Masters · 2018-03-19

R128

Daniil Medvedev #52

Stefanos Tsitsipas #70

2-6 6-4 6-2
6 Aces 6
5 Double Faults 2
77 Service Points 80
39 First Serve In 47
26 First Serve Won 35
21 Second Serve Won 13
4 Break Points Saved 8
7 Break Points Faced 12
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Daniil Medvedev — Last 10

W W L W W W W W W W

Stefanos Tsitsipas — Last 10

W W W L W W W L W W