ATP tennis predict — Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Gorzny

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

81.36%

Sebastian Gorzny

USA

18.64%

Average Odds

1.03 / 14.07

Market probability

93.18% / 6.82%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1894 vs 1627), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1903 vs 1602) and more wins on hard courts (366 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1893.5 Elo 1626.6

1903.3 Elo (surface) 1602.1

488 Wins 2

366 Wins (surface) 2

8 Last 15 form 2

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.978 Dominance ratio 0.971

8 Rank 731

30.6 Age 22.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Sebastian Gorzny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Sebastian Gorzny

1st Serve In %

61.1%

62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

43.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.4%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%

54.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

58.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Sebastian Gorzny

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

66.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.6%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.0%

57.3%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

37.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev 0 – 0 Sebastian Gorzny

Hard US Open · 2026-09-02

2. round

Daniil Medvedev #8

Sebastian Gorzny #731

6-1 6-3 7-5

14 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 5

81 Service Points 100

53 First Serve In 64

46 First Serve Won 38

13 Second Serve Won 15

1 Break Points Saved 9

1 Break Points Faced 14

38 Winners 15

22 Unforced Errors 39

1.0 Average Odds 14.1

Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Gorzny — Prediction