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Daniil Medvedev vs Roman Safiullin — Prediction

ATP Hard Hangzhou · SF 13:30

Predicted probability

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

69.63%

Roman Safiullin

Russia

30.37%

Average Odds

1.43  /  2.79

Market probability

66.11%  /  33.89%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2086 vs 1952), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2076 vs 1840) and a stronger return game (39.1% vs 36.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

2086.1 Elo 1951.7
2076.2 Elo (surface) 1839.9
492 Wins 105
370 Wins (surface) 65
9 Last 15 form 10
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.136 Dominance ratio 1.185
6 Rank 84
30.6 Age 29.1
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–4L · 60.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Roman Safiullin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Roman Safiullin

1st Serve In %

61.3%
65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%
72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%
58.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%
28.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.0%
52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.67
0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29
0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%
67.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%
70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%
55.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%
28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%
52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.75
0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25
0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Roman Safiullin

Break Points Saved %

68.6%
66.2%

Break Points Converted %

48.5%
37.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.0%
71.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%
56.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev and Roman Safiullin have never played each other.

Daniil Medvedev — Last 10

W W L W W W L L W L

Roman Safiullin — Last 10

W W W L L W L W L W