ATP tennis predict — Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta

ATP Hard Beijing · 1. round 05:00

Predicted probability

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

80.72%

Pablo Carreno Busta

Spain

19.28%

Average Odds

1.23 / 4.12

Market probability

77.01% / 22.99%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2099 vs 1917), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2086 vs 1836) and a stronger serve (65.6% vs 58.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2098.8 Elo 1916.6

2086.5 Elo (surface) 1835.9

494 Wins 337

372 Wins (surface) 187

10 Last 15 form 7

5 Head-to-head wins 2

1.136 Dominance ratio 0.904

6 Rank 66

30.6 Age 35.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Pablo Carreno Busta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Pablo Carreno Busta

1st Serve In %

60.4%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.6%

64.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.5%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.3%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.88

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

38.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Pablo Carreno Busta

Break Points Saved %

77.8%

46.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

38.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.0%

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev 5 – 2 Pablo Carreno Busta

Hard Davis Cup Finals RR: ESP vs RTF · 2021-11-28

RR

Daniil Medvedev #2

Pablo Carreno Busta #20

6-2 7-6(3)

11 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 0

67 Service Points 63

44 First Serve In 48

34 First Serve Won 23

7 Second Serve Won 8

5 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2021-08-16

QF

Daniil Medvedev #2

Pablo Carreno Busta #13

6-1 6-1

9 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

34 Service Points 52

26 First Serve In 41

24 First Serve Won 23

4 Second Serve Won 1

0 Break Points Saved 6

0 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Tokyo Olympics · 2021-07-24

QF

Pablo Carreno Busta #11

Daniil Medvedev #2

6-2 7-6(5)

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Mallorca · 2021-06-21

SF

Daniil Medvedev #2

Pablo Carreno Busta #13

3-6 6-3 6-2

10 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 1

69 Service Points 96

37 First Serve In 76

30 First Serve Won 47

19 Second Serve Won 11

1 Break Points Saved 8

2 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Paris Masters · 2018-10-29

R64

Daniil Medvedev #17

Pablo Carreno Busta #24

6-2 6-2

8 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 4

41 Service Points 39

28 First Serve In 26

27 First Serve Won 16

6 Second Serve Won 4

0 Break Points Saved 2

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2018-03-05

R32

Pablo Carreno Busta #14

Daniil Medvedev #57

6-1 7-5

6 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 6

79 Service Points 61

51 First Serve In 41

36 First Serve Won 29

14 Second Serve Won 5

11 Break Points Saved 4

12 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Moscow · 2017-10-16

R16

Daniil Medvedev #67

Pablo Carreno Busta #11

6-3 6-3

8 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 2

49 Service Points 74

31 First Serve In 49

25 First Serve Won 28

10 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev — Last 10

Pablo Carreno Busta — Last 10