ATP tennis predict — Daniil Medvedev vs Jan Lennard Struff

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

85.67%

Jan Lennard Struff

Germany

14.33%

Average Odds

1.14 / 5.56

Market probability

82.99% / 17.01%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2110 vs 1900), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2093 vs 1777) and more aces per game (0.48 vs 0.30).

Player Comparison

2109.5 Elo 1899.6

2093.2 Elo (surface) 1777.1

497 Wins 332

375 Wins (surface) 178

11 Last 15 form 9

10 Head-to-head wins 3

1.136 Dominance ratio 1.016

5 Rank 59

30.7 Age 36.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jan Lennard Struff

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Jan Lennard Struff

1st Serve In %

59.1%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.8%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

68.5%

49.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.93

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%

58.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Jan Lennard Struff

Break Points Saved %

73.9%

50.9%

Break Points Converted %

34.1%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.0%

56.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

37.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev 10 – 3 Jan Lennard Struff

Hard Beijing · 2026-10-03

R16

Daniil Medvedev #6

Jan Lennard Struff #59

6-4 6-3

10 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

28 First Serve Won 32

9 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 6

2 Break Points Faced 9

19 Winners 22

14 Unforced Errors 28

1.1 Average Odds 5.5

Grass Wimbledon · 2026-07-03

3. round

Jan Lennard Struff #74

Daniil Medvedev #9

7-6 7-6 7-5

11 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 10

135 Service Points 119

77 First Serve In 63

58 First Serve Won 43

23 Second Serve Won 28

8 Break Points Saved 4

12 Break Points Faced 9

47 Winners 39

42 Unforced Errors 32

4.9 Average Odds 1.2

Hard Dubai · 2025-02-24

R32

Daniil Medvedev #6

Jan Lennard Struff #46

6-4 7-6(4)

7 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

71 Service Points 94

39 First Serve In 62

31 First Serve Won 44

20 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 9

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Marseille · 2025-02-10

QF

Daniil Medvedev #8

Jan Lennard Struff #46

6-3 6-2

6 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 4

54 Service Points 65

34 First Serve In 41

26 First Serve Won 24

11 Second Serve Won 10

5 Break Points Saved 8

5 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2024-07-01

R32

Daniil Medvedev #5

Jan Lennard Struff #41

6-1 6-3 4-6 7-6(3)

13 Aces 10

5 Double Faults 9

104 Service Points 126

75 First Serve In 76

59 First Serve Won 55

17 Second Serve Won 22

2 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Davis Cup Finals SF: RTF vs GER · 2021-12-04

RR

Daniil Medvedev #2

Jan Lennard Struff #51

6-4 6-4

7 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 4

50 Service Points 54

35 First Serve In 34

29 First Serve Won 29

12 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2021-06-28

R128

Daniil Medvedev #2

Jan Lennard Struff #45

6-4 6-1 4-6 7-6(3)

16 Aces 9

2 Double Faults 4

116 Service Points 141

63 First Serve In 87

52 First Serve Won 65

32 Second Serve Won 21

4 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Halle · 2021-06-14

R32

Jan Lennard Struff #45

Daniil Medvedev #2

7-6(6) 6-3

9 Aces 7

4 Double Faults 5

87 Service Points 64

52 First Serve In 40

39 First Serve Won 30

14 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 1

6 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2019-08-12

R16

Daniil Medvedev #8

Jan Lennard Struff #36

6-2 6-1

9 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 1

54 Service Points 53

37 First Serve In 28

28 First Serve Won 18

9 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Marseille · 2017-02-20

R16

Daniil Medvedev #64

Jan Lennard Struff #62

6-3 3-6 7-6(3)

6 Aces 9

3 Double Faults 4

94 Service Points 80

59 First Serve In 48

43 First Serve Won 41

24 Second Serve Won 20

3 Break Points Saved 0

4 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Mons CH · 2016-10-03

SF

Jan Lennard Struff #109

Daniil Medvedev #130

7-6(2) 7-6(5)

11 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 1

75 Service Points 79

46 First Serve In 47

39 First Serve Won 32

13 Second Serve Won 17

1 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Orleans CH · 2016-09-26

R32

Daniil Medvedev #136

Jan Lennard Struff #84

6-4 6-2

3 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 4

50 Service Points 60

24 First Serve In 35

17 First Serve Won 22

14 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Hamburg · 2016-07-11

R32

Daniil Medvedev #215

Jan Lennard Struff #86

6-4 5-7 6-4

4 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 5

93 Service Points 94

49 First Serve In 47

37 First Serve Won 37

30 Second Serve Won 25

0 Break Points Saved 0

1 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Daniil Medvedev vs Jan Lennard Struff — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev — Last 10

Jan Lennard Struff — Last 10