ATP tennis predict — Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 19:30

Predicted probability

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

60.86%

Hugo Gaston

France

39.14%

Average Odds

1.10 / 7.41

Market probability

87.07% / 12.93%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1888 vs 1718), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1897 vs 1745) and better recent form (10 wins in his last 15 matches vs 9).

Player Comparison

1888.2 Elo 1718.4

1896.8 Elo (surface) 1745.5

487 Wins 93

365 Wins (surface) 47

8 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.904 Dominance ratio 1.260

8 Rank 88

30.6 Age 25.9

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Hugo Gaston

1st Serve In %

61.1%

54.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

37.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.4%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Hugo Gaston

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

52.8%

Break Points Converted %

46.6%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.0%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev 1 – 0 Hugo Gaston

Hard US Open · 2026-08-30

1. round

Daniil Medvedev #8

Hugo Gaston #91

6-4 6-2 6-4

10 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 5

78 Service Points 107

46 First Serve In 61

38 First Serve Won 39

20 Second Serve Won 22

1 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 8

34 Winners 11

39 Unforced Errors 22

1.1 Average Odds 7.4

Hard Paris Masters · 2021-11-01

QF

Daniil Medvedev #2

Hugo Gaston #103

7-6(7) 6-4

13 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 3

76 Service Points 79

55 First Serve In 48

39 First Serve Won 33

10 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo Gaston — Prediction