ATP tennis predict — Daniil Medvedev vs Francisco Cerundolo

ATP Hard Beijing · QF 10:30

Predicted probability

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

63.79%

Francisco Cerundolo

Argentina

36.21%

Average Odds

1.37 / 3.05

Market probability

69.00% / 31.00%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2107 vs 2036), a stronger serve (65.6% vs 59.7% of service points won) and a stronger return game (39.1% vs 35.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

2107.4 Elo 2036.0

2093.0 Elo (surface) 1965.5

496 Wins 192

374 Wins (surface) 70

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.136 Dominance ratio 0.869

6 Rank 22

30.6 Age 28.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Francisco Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Francisco Cerundolo

1st Serve In %

60.5%

51.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

79.3%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.8%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.1%

26.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

61.3%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.95

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%

69.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.15

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Francisco Cerundolo

Break Points Saved %

80.6%

65.4%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.0%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

47.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev 0 – 1 Francisco Cerundolo

Hard Miami Masters · 2026-03-18

R32

Francisco Cerundolo #19

Daniil Medvedev #10

6-0 4-6 7-5

1 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 5

94 Service Points 90

64 First Serve In 56

37 First Serve Won 32

18 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Daniil Medvedev vs Francisco Cerundolo — Prediction