ATP tennis predict — Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe

Grand Slam Hard US Open · R16 21:00

Predicted probability

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

57.57%

Frances Tiafoe

USA

42.43%

Average Odds

1.63 / 2.28

Market probability

58.31% / 41.69%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (38.5% vs 34.7% of return points won), a higher Elo rating (1902 vs 1896) and a stronger serve (64.3% vs 63.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1902.4 Elo 1895.6

1913.2 Elo (surface) 1841.1

490 Wins 299

368 Wins (surface) 207

9 Last 15 form 11

6 Head-to-head wins 2

1.078 Dominance ratio 0.960

8 Rank 12

30.6 Age 28.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Frances Tiafoe

1st Serve In %

61.1%

52.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.4%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.75

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Frances Tiafoe

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

46.6%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.0%

70.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev 6 – 2 Frances Tiafoe

Hard US Open · 2026-09-06

R16

Frances Tiafoe #12

Daniil Medvedev #8

7-6 6-4 7-6

14 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 0

113 Service Points 116

67 First Serve In 73

50 First Serve Won 50

17 Second Serve Won 23

4 Break Points Saved 5

9 Break Points Faced 9

37 Winners 31

32 Unforced Errors 32

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Brisbane · 2026-01-04

R16

Daniil Medvedev #13

Frances Tiafoe #30

6-3 6-2

9 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 0

48 Service Points 42

34 First Serve In 25

31 First Serve Won 20

6 Second Serve Won 6

0 Break Points Saved 3

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Laver Cup · 2024-09-20

RR

Frances Tiafoe #16

Daniil Medvedev #5

3-6 6-4 [10-5]

2 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 3

61 Service Points 68

34 First Serve In 45

28 First Serve Won 30

15 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2023-03-06

SF

Daniil Medvedev #6

Frances Tiafoe #16

7-5 7-6(4)

9 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 1

75 Service Points 75

44 First Serve In 44

35 First Serve Won 31

20 Second Serve Won 15

1 Break Points Saved 8

3 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Miami Masters · 2021-03-22

R16

Daniil Medvedev #2

Frances Tiafoe #58

6-4 6-3

11 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 0

60 Service Points 56

38 First Serve In 34

30 First Serve Won 19

13 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 1

3 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Us Open · 2020-08-31

R16

Daniil Medvedev #5

Frances Tiafoe #82

6-4 6-1 6-0

7 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 1

60 Service Points 70

31 First Serve In 44

22 First Serve Won 24

20 Second Serve Won 6

0 Break Points Saved 3

1 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2020-01-20

R128

Daniil Medvedev #4

Frances Tiafoe #50

6-3 4-6 6-4 6-2

13 Aces 3

12 Double Faults 2

120 Service Points 115

63 First Serve In 75

45 First Serve Won 45

26 Second Serve Won 17

6 Break Points Saved 5

11 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Washington · 2019-07-29

R16

Daniil Medvedev #10

Frances Tiafoe #40

6-2 7-5

11 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 1

55 Service Points 67

31 First Serve In 46

26 First Serve Won 29

14 Second Serve Won 8

2 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Nice · 2015-05-17

Q2

Frances Tiafoe #291

Daniil Medvedev #468

6-3 6-2

3 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 3

53 Service Points 40

36 First Serve In 18

28 First Serve Won 13

11 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev — Last 10

Frances Tiafoe — Last 10