ATP tennis predict — Daniil Medvedev vs Dalibor Svrcina

ATP Hard Shanghai · 3. round 09:00

Predicted probability

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

74.09%

Dalibor Svrcina

Czech Republic

25.91%

Average Odds

1.15 / 5.37

Market probability

82.36% / 17.64%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2114 vs 1862), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2096 vs 1847) and a stronger serve (65.6% vs 58.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2113.5 Elo 1861.9

2096.0 Elo (surface) 1847.2

498 Wins 44

376 Wins (surface) 37

11 Last 15 form 10

2 Head-to-head wins 0

1.136 Dominance ratio 1.142

5 Rank 126

30.7 Age 24.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Dalibor Svrcina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Dalibor Svrcina

1st Serve In %

62.9%

52.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.5%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.5%

45.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

33.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

63.0%

59.9%

Aces per Service Game

1.02

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%

55.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

62.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

46.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Dalibor Svrcina

Break Points Saved %

74.0%

59.8%

Break Points Converted %

32.5%

48.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.0%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

42.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev 2 – 0 Dalibor Svrcina

Hard Shanghai Masters · 2025-10-01

R64

Daniil Medvedev #18

Dalibor Svrcina #91

6-1 6-1

2 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 1

35 Service Points 43

29 First Serve In 30

24 First Serve Won 10

4 Second Serve Won 6

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Canada Masters · 2025-07-27

R64

Daniil Medvedev #14

Dalibor Svrcina #120

7-6(3) 6-4

4 Aces 0

5 Double Faults 5

67 Service Points 82

33 First Serve In 43

23 First Serve Won 29

18 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 12