ATP tennis predict — Daniil Medvedev vs Coleman Wong

ATP Hard Hangzhou · QF 13:30

Predicted probability

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

63.97%

Coleman Wong

Hong Kong

36.03%

Average Odds

1.23 / 4.00

Market probability

76.48% / 23.52%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2082 vs 1856), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2072 vs 1838) and more wins on hard courts (369 vs 48).

Player Comparison

2082.3 Elo 1855.9

2072.1 Elo (surface) 1837.5

491 Wins 49

369 Wins (surface) 48

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.136 Dominance ratio 1.309

6 Rank 108

30.6 Age 22.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Coleman Wong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–5L · 61.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Coleman Wong

1st Serve In %

60.0%

53.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.1%

77.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

59.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.5%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.69

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

76.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

23.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Coleman Wong

Break Points Saved %

63.0%

67.4%

Break Points Converted %

46.5%

34.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.0%

52.5%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

38.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev and Coleman Wong have never played each other.

Daniil Medvedev vs Coleman Wong — Prediction