ATP tennis predict — Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 3. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

76.16%

Arthur Rinderknech

France

23.84%

Average Odds

1.35 / 3.24

Market probability

70.59% / 29.41%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1897 vs 1735), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1907 vs 1761) and a stronger return game (38.5% vs 30.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1896.9 Elo 1735.3

1906.6 Elo (surface) 1761.2

489 Wins 153

367 Wins (surface) 89

9 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.051 Dominance ratio 0.852

8 Rank 29

30.6 Age 31.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Arthur Rinderknech

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Arthur Rinderknech

1st Serve In %

61.1%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.6%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.2%

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.4%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%

78.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Arthur Rinderknech

Break Points Saved %

54.5%

59.3%

Break Points Converted %

46.6%

35.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.0%

73.5%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

28.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev 1 – 1 Arthur Rinderknech

Hard US Open · 2026-09-04

3. round

Daniil Medvedev #8

Arthur Rinderknech #29

6-4 6-4 6-4

10 Aces 9

6 Double Faults 1

77 Service Points 84

41 First Serve In 57

35 First Serve Won 47

23 Second Serve Won 6

1 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 5

23 Winners 24

18 Unforced Errors 41

1.4 Average Odds 3.2

Hard Shanghai Masters · 2025-10-01

SF

Arthur Rinderknech #54

Daniil Medvedev #18

4-6 6-2 6-4

12 Aces 11

6 Double Faults 4

111 Service Points 78

75 First Serve In 51

51 First Serve Won 39

18 Second Serve Won 12

10 Break Points Saved 3

11 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Us Open · 2022-08-29

R64

Daniil Medvedev #1

Arthur Rinderknech #58

6-2 7-5 6-3

8 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 4

82 Service Points 107

51 First Serve In 63

39 First Serve Won 41

21 Second Serve Won 18

3 Break Points Saved 12

3 Break Points Faced 17