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Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev — Prediction

ATP Hard Hangzhou · F 13:30

Predicted probability

Daniil Medvedev

Russia

57.98%

Andrey Rublev

Russia

42.02%

Average Odds

1.48  /  2.60

Market probability

63.73%  /  36.27%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Medvedev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2086 vs 2025) and more aces per game (0.33 vs 0.27).

Player Comparison

2086.1 Elo 2024.7
2076.2 Elo (surface) 1937.5
492 Wins 440
370 Wins (surface) 293
9 Last 15 form 9
8 Head-to-head wins 2
1.136 Dominance ratio 1.240
6 Rank 24
30.6 Age 28.9
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Medvedev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–4L · 60.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Andrey Rublev

1st Serve In %

61.3%
60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%
73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.8%
49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%
31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.0%
43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.67
0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29
0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.0%
58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.6%
74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.3%
48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%
35.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%
55.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.75
0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25
0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Medvedev Andrey Rublev

Break Points Saved %

68.6%
67.8%

Break Points Converted %

48.5%
39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

77.0%
56.5%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%
48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev 8 – 2 Andrey Rublev

Hard Tour Finals · 2023-11-13

RR

Daniil Medvedev #3

Andrey Rublev #5

6-4 6-2
10 Aces 2
3 Double Faults 2
64 Service Points 68
36 First Serve In 45
30 First Serve Won 28
14 Second Serve Won 9
7 Break Points Saved 7
7 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Us Open · 2023-08-28

QF

Daniil Medvedev #3

Andrey Rublev #8

6-4 6-3 6-4
8 Aces 4
9 Double Faults 5
100 Service Points 98
55 First Serve In 59
41 First Serve Won 38
13 Second Serve Won 11
8 Break Points Saved 10
13 Break Points Faced 19
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Dubai · 2023-02-27

F

Daniil Medvedev #7

Andrey Rublev #6

6-2 6-2
9 Aces 3
1 Double Faults 1
40 Service Points 54
29 First Serve In 33
24 First Serve Won 21
8 Second Serve Won 6
0 Break Points Saved 3
0 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Tour Finals · 2022-11-14

RR

Andrey Rublev #7

Daniil Medvedev #5

6-7(7) 6-3 7-6(7)
9 Aces 24
1 Double Faults 8
98 Service Points 123
68 First Serve In 82
56 First Serve Won 65
18 Second Serve Won 18
1 Break Points Saved 6
2 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2021-08-16

SF

Andrey Rublev #7

Daniil Medvedev #2

2-6 6-3 6-3
2 Aces 8
5 Double Faults 3
85 Service Points 100
60 First Serve In 54
44 First Serve Won 36
8 Second Serve Won 22
4 Break Points Saved 6
7 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Australian Open · 2021-02-08

QF

Daniil Medvedev #4

Andrey Rublev #8

7-5 6-3 6-2
14 Aces 8
4 Double Faults 3
90 Service Points 85
54 First Serve In 40
43 First Serve Won 25
19 Second Serve Won 25
4 Break Points Saved 6
5 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Us Open · 2020-08-31

QF

Daniil Medvedev #5

Andrey Rublev #14

7-6(6) 6-3 7-6(5)
16 Aces 10
3 Double Faults 1
97 Service Points 100
57 First Serve In 51
51 First Serve Won 40
26 Second Serve Won 30
0 Break Points Saved 0
0 Break Points Faced 1
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard St. Petersburg · 2019-09-16

QF

Daniil Medvedev #4

Andrey Rublev #38

6-4 7-5
12 Aces 3
5 Double Faults 1
69 Service Points 89
42 First Serve In 52
30 First Serve Won 35
11 Second Serve Won 11
3 Break Points Saved 8
6 Break Points Faced 13
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2019-08-12

QF

Daniil Medvedev #8

Andrey Rublev #70

6-2 6-3
9 Aces 4
2 Double Faults 2
51 Service Points 47
28 First Serve In 26
21 First Serve Won 17
13 Second Serve Won 6
0 Break Points Saved 3
1 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Budapest CH · 2016-10-24

R16

Daniil Medvedev #106

Andrey Rublev #167

6-3 6-2
4 Aces 2
3 Double Faults 6
46 Service Points 69
30 First Serve In 42
25 First Serve Won 25
11 Second Serve Won 11
0 Break Points Saved 9
0 Break Points Faced 12
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Daniil Medvedev — Last 10

W W L W W W L L W L

Andrey Rublev — Last 10

W W L W L W L L W W