ATP tennis predict — Daniil Glinka vs Daniel Rincon

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · 1. round 18:00

Predicted probability

Daniil Glinka

Estonia

47.05%

Daniel Rincon

Spain

52.95%

Average Odds

1.97 / 1.76

Market probability

47.18% / 52.82%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1644.6 Elo 1689.1

1659.2 Elo (surface) 1621.0

78 Wins (Challenger) 105

72 Wins (surface) 29

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.231 Dominance ratio 1.051

156 Rank 208

26.3 Age 23.6

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Glinka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Daniel Rincon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Glinka Daniel Rincon

1st Serve In %

61.6%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.1%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.6%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.3%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.9%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Glinka Daniel Rincon

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.2%

69.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.6%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Glinka 0 – 0 Daniel Rincon

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-09-02

1. round

Daniel Rincon #208

Daniil Glinka #156

7-6 6-3

1 Aces 5

4 Double Faults 1

64 Service Points 63

32 First Serve In 46

23 First Serve Won 35

17 Second Serve Won 10

1 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Daniil Glinka vs Daniel Rincon — Prediction