ATP tennis predict — Daniil Glinka vs Daniel Jade

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Daniil Glinka

Estonia

71.73%

Daniel Jade

France

28.27%

Average Odds

1.27 / 3.54

Market probability

73.60% / 26.40%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Glinka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1716 vs 1563), a higher Elo rating (1706 vs 1528) and a stronger serve (65.2% vs 58.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1705.7 Elo 1527.6

1716.0 Elo (surface) 1563.3

80 Wins (Challenger) 3

74 Wins (surface) 2

9 Last 15 form 3

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.159 Dominance ratio 0.875

173 Rank 643

26.4 Age 17.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniil Glinka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Daniel Jade

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Glinka Daniel Jade

1st Serve In %

61.6%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.1%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.50

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.6%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.3%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.9%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniil Glinka Daniel Jade

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.2%

58.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.6%

43.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniil Glinka 0 – 0 Daniel Jade

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Daniil Glinka #173

Daniel Jade #643

6-3 7-5

6 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

19 First Serve Won 17

17 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Daniil Glinka vs Daniel Jade — Prediction