ATP tennis predict — Daniel Rincon vs Tomas Barrios Vera

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 3. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Daniel Rincon

Spain

76.17%

Tomas Barrios Vera

Chile

23.83%

Average Odds

2.40 / 1.53

Market probability

38.93% / 61.07%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Rincon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1706 vs 1671), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1650 vs 1597) and a stronger serve (63.5% vs 62.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1706.2 Elo 1671.3

1650.4 Elo (surface) 1596.5

9 Wins 52

3 Wins (surface) 14

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.957 Dominance ratio 0.888

208 Rank 144

23.6 Age 28.7

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Rincon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-11.

Tomas Barrios Vera

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Rincon Tomas Barrios Vera

1st Serve In %

60.5%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

41.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

63.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.0%

64.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

36.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Rincon Tomas Barrios Vera

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

60.5%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.4%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Rincon 0 – 0 Tomas Barrios Vera

Hard US Open · 2026-08-27

qualification - 3. round

Tomas Barrios Vera #144

Daniel Rincon #208

6-4 6-3

11 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 1

71 Service Points 61

45 First Serve In 44

29 First Serve Won 33

13 Second Serve Won 10

7 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 4

25 Winners 25

29 Unforced Errors 23

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Daniel Rincon vs Tomas Barrios Vera — Prediction