ATP tennis predict — Daniel Rincon vs Titouan Droguet

Challenger Hard Rennes challenger · R16 19:00

Predicted probability

Daniel Rincon

Spain

23.50%

Titouan Droguet

France

76.50%

Average Odds

4.09 / 1.20

Market probability

22.68% / 77.32%

Why This Prediction?

Titouan Droguet is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1935 vs 1741), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1862 vs 1722) and more career match wins (127 vs 108).

Player Comparison

1741.3 Elo 1935.1

1722.3 Elo (surface) 1862.3

108 Wins (Challenger) 127

32 Wins (surface) 58

8 Last 15 form 13

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.016 Dominance ratio 1.165

253 Rank 89

23.7 Age 25.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Rincon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-11.

Titouan Droguet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Rincon Titouan Droguet

1st Serve In %

60.5%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

67.0%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Rincon Titouan Droguet

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.4%

68.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

43.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Rincon 1 – 0 Titouan Droguet

Hard Rennes challenger · 2026-09-17

R16

Titouan Droguet #89

Daniel Rincon #253

5-7 6-4 6-3

9 Aces 11

3 Double Faults 5

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

46 First Serve Won 52

19 Second Serve Won 11

13 Break Points Saved 4

17 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.1

Hard US Open · 2026-08-24

qualification - 1. round

Daniel Rincon #208

Titouan Droguet #102

2-6 6-4 7-6

4 Aces 5

6 Double Faults 6

111 Service Points 109

68 First Serve In 57

42 First Serve Won 38

18 Second Serve Won 25

12 Break Points Saved 9

17 Break Points Faced 15

28 Winners 39

28 Unforced Errors 35

4.4 Average Odds 1.2

Daniel Rincon vs Titouan Droguet — Prediction