ATP tennis predict — Daniel Rincon vs Pedro Martinez

Challenger Hard Villena challenger · R16 11:00

Predicted probability

Daniel Rincon

Spain

46.16%

Pedro Martinez

Spain

53.84%

Average Odds

1.81 / 1.86

Market probability

50.68% / 49.32%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1742.9 Elo 1740.9

1709.2 Elo (surface) 1719.0

111 Wins (Challenger) 165

35 Wins (surface) 40

7 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.016 Dominance ratio 0.915

245 Rank 130

23.8 Age 29.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Rincon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-11.

Pedro Martinez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Rincon Pedro Martinez

1st Serve In %

60.5%

67.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

58.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

33.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

56.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.3%

69.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

58.9%

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

61.0%

42.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

35.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.2%

57.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.15

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Rincon Pedro Martinez

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

49.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

72.0%

56.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.2%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Rincon 1 – 1 Pedro Martinez

Clay Parma 3 challenger · 2026-06-16

1. round

Daniel Rincon #271

Pedro Martinez #136

7-6 7-6

1 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 1

84 Service Points 90

50 First Serve In 54

32 First Serve Won 36

19 Second Serve Won 20

4 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Clay Blois CH · 2023-06-19

R32

Pedro Martinez #121

Daniel Rincon #278

6-3 6-3

0 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 4

65 Service Points 50

48 First Serve In 32

34 First Serve Won 17

7 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 3

4 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Daniel Rincon vs Pedro Martinez — Prediction