ATP tennis predict — Daniel Rincon vs Inaki Montes De La Torre

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · R16 16:45

Predicted probability

Daniel Rincon

Spain

60.20%

Inaki Montes De La Torre

Spain

39.80%

Average Odds

1.73 / 2.01

Market probability

53.74% / 46.26%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Rincon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1701 vs 1649), fewer double faults per game (0.09 vs 0.26) and a stronger serve (61.6% vs 51.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1701.4 Elo 1649.4

1646.5 Elo (surface) 1661.6

106 Wins (Challenger) 76

30 Wins (surface) 48

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.037 Dominance ratio 1.238

208 Rank 274

23.7 Age 23.9

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Rincon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-11.

Inaki Montes De La Torre

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–2L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Rincon Inaki Montes De La Torre

1st Serve In %

60.5%

58.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

55.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.53

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.4%

61.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.0%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

36.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

51.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Rincon Inaki Montes De La Torre

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

56.7%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.4%

44.9%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Rincon 0 – 0 Inaki Montes De La Torre

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-09-03

R16

Inaki Montes De La Torre #274

Daniel Rincon #208

6-2 6-4

6 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 1

48 Service Points 66

33 First Serve In 33

21 First Serve Won 21

6 Second Serve Won 21

1 Break Points Saved 9

5 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.0 Average Odds 1.7

Daniel Rincon vs Inaki Montes De La Torre — Prediction