ATP tennis predict — Daniel Rincon vs David Jorda Sanchis

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · QF 12:00

Predicted probability

Daniel Rincon

Spain

74.17%

David Jorda Sanchis

Spain

25.83%

Average Odds

1.35 / 2.92

Market probability

68.38% / 31.62%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Rincon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1707 vs 1472), a higher Elo rating (1734 vs 1647) and a stronger return game (38.0% vs 34.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1734.4 Elo 1646.7

1706.8 Elo (surface) 1472.1

109 Wins (Challenger) 93

33 Wins (surface) 23

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.016 Dominance ratio 0.930

257 Rank 212

23.7 Age 32.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Rincon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-11.

David Jorda Sanchis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Rincon David Jorda Sanchis

1st Serve In %

60.5%

61.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

40.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.7%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

46.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.4%

42.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Rincon David Jorda Sanchis

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

34.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

67.4%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.8%

45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Rincon 0 – 1 David Jorda Sanchis

Clay Troyes CH · 2023-07-03

R32

David Jorda Sanchis #438

Daniel Rincon #280

2-6 7-5 7-6(3)

1 Aces 2

6 Double Faults 9

120 Service Points 107

56 First Serve In 66

37 First Serve Won 46

31 Second Serve Won 16

8 Break Points Saved 6

13 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Daniel Rincon vs David Jorda Sanchis — Prediction