ATP tennis predict — Daniel Rincon vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Challenger Hard Villena challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Daniel Rincon

Spain

68.17%

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Spain

31.83%

Average Odds

1.55 / 2.24

Market probability

59.10% / 40.90%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Rincon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1735 vs 1584), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1694 vs 1589) and a stronger return game (38.0% vs 36.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1734.7 Elo 1584.0

1693.8 Elo (surface) 1589.3

110 Wins (Challenger) 33

34 Wins (surface) 12

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.016 Dominance ratio 0.958

257 Rank 370

23.7 Age 21.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Rincon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-06-11.

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Rincon Alejo Sanchez Quilez

1st Serve In %

60.5%

65.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

62.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.6%

36.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.6%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.9%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

29.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Rincon Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

33.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.8%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.0%

57.6%

Break Points Converted %

38.8%

41.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Rincon and Alejo Sanchez Quilez have never played each other.

Daniel Rincon vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez — Prediction