ATP tennis predict — Daniel Milavsky vs Rei Sakamoto

Challenger Hard Brownsburg challenger · QF 16:00

Predicted probability

Daniel Milavsky

USA

36.33%

Rei Sakamoto

Japan

63.67%

Average Odds

2.72 / 1.41

Market probability

34.14% / 65.86%

Why This Prediction?

Rei Sakamoto is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (73.1% vs 59.0% of service points won), more wins on hard courts (10 vs 0) and a lighter recent match load (60 vs 62 games played recently).

Player Comparison

1688.8 Elo 1677.8

1630.6 Elo (surface) 1591.6

31 Wins (Challenger) 60

26 Wins (surface) 50

11 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.919 Dominance ratio 1.196

306 Rank 165

24.9 Age 20.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Milavsky

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Rei Sakamoto

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Milavsky Rei Sakamoto

1st Serve In %

65.5%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

76.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

37.9%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

21.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

75.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

40.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Milavsky Rei Sakamoto

Break Points Saved %

70.0%

57.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Milavsky 0 – 0 Rei Sakamoto

Hard Brownsburg challenger · 2026-08-14

QF

Daniel Milavsky #306

Rei Sakamoto #165

6-3 6-3

5 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 4

60 Service Points 58

35 First Serve In 32

25 First Serve Won 25

17 Second Serve Won 7

5 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Daniel Milavsky vs Rei Sakamoto — Prediction