ATP tennis predict — Daniel Milavsky vs Quinn Vandecasteele

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Daniel Milavsky

USA

64.44%

Quinn Vandecasteele

USA

35.56%

Average Odds

1.51 / 2.04

Market probability

57.46% / 42.54%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Milavsky is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1623 vs 1424), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1535 vs 1453) and a stronger serve (64.1% vs 64.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1623.5 Elo 1423.7

1535.2 Elo (surface) 1452.9

26 Wins (Challenger) 45

21 Wins (surface) 38

10 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.059 Dominance ratio 1.139

325 Rank 454

24.9 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Milavsky

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Quinn Vandecasteele

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Milavsky Quinn Vandecasteele

1st Serve In %

65.5%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.9%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

37.9%

42.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.5%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.84

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.3%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

33.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Milavsky Quinn Vandecasteele

Break Points Saved %

70.0%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

58.2%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Milavsky 1 – 0 Quinn Vandecasteele

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-28

qualification - round of 16

Daniel Milavsky #325

Quinn Vandecasteele #454

6-2 0-6 6-3

1 Aces 6

5 Double Faults 6

76 Service Points 84

44 First Serve In 49

26 First Serve Won 28

17 Second Serve Won 16

6 Break Points Saved 11

10 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.0

Grass Newport challenger · 2026-07-08

qualification - round of 16

Daniel Milavsky #367

Quinn Vandecasteele #455

1-6 6-3 6-3

8 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 2

81 Service Points 76

47 First Serve In 44

28 First Serve Won 30

18 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 6

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Daniel Milavsky vs Quinn Vandecasteele — Prediction