ATP tennis predict — Daniel Michalski vs Lukas Neumayer

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · R16 20:30

Predicted probability

Daniel Michalski

Poland

33.22%

Lukas Neumayer

Austria

66.78%

Average Odds

2.72 / 1.41

Market probability

34.14% / 65.86%

Why This Prediction?

Lukas Neumayer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1659 vs 1531), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1675 vs 1512) and more wins on clay courts (9 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1531.1 Elo 1659.3

1512.3 Elo (surface) 1674.8

97 Wins (Challenger) 114

79 Wins (surface) 104

7 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.345 Dominance ratio 0.925

338 Rank 169

26.6 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Michalski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Lukas Neumayer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Michalski Lukas Neumayer

1st Serve In %

59.0%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.0%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.5%

53.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.14

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.3%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.3%

35.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

39.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.16

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Michalski Lukas Neumayer

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

63.0%

Break Points Converted %

32.1%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

40.8%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

55.1%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Michalski 0 – 0 Lukas Neumayer

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-13

R16

Lukas Neumayer #169

Daniel Michalski #338

4-6 7-5 6-0

3 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 2

97 Service Points 76

51 First Serve In 50

32 First Serve Won 36

25 Second Serve Won 17

11 Break Points Saved 0

15 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Daniel Michalski vs Lukas Neumayer — Prediction