ATP tennis predict — Daniel Michalski vs Lorenzo Carboni

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · 1. round 18:20

Predicted probability

Daniel Michalski

Poland

60.01%

Lorenzo Carboni

Italy

39.99%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.05

Market probability

54.52% / 45.48%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Michalski is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1520 vs 1430), a stronger return game (48.2% vs 38.2% of return points won) and a stronger serve (60.4% vs 58.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1520.2 Elo 1429.5

1498.3 Elo (surface) 1455.5

96 Wins (Challenger) 28

78 Wins (surface) 18

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.262 Dominance ratio 0.875

338 Rank 481

26.6 Age 20.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Michalski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Lorenzo Carboni

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Michalski Lorenzo Carboni

1st Serve In %

59.0%

75.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

67.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.0%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.5%

38.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.14

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.3%

61.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.8%

62.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.4%

38.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.3%

30.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.16

0.08

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Michalski Lorenzo Carboni

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

32.1%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

40.8%

42.5%

Break Points Converted %

55.1%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Michalski 0 – 0 Lorenzo Carboni

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-11

1. round

Daniel Michalski #338

Lorenzo Carboni #481

6-0 6-3

2 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 2

37 Service Points 50

22 First Serve In 28

20 First Serve Won 17

9 Second Serve Won 7

2 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Daniel Michalski vs Lorenzo Carboni — Prediction