ATP tennis predict — Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Zizou Bergs

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 2. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

41.61%

Zizou Bergs

Belgium

58.39%

Average Odds

1.81 / 1.99

Market probability

52.37% / 47.63%

Why This Prediction?

Zizou Bergs is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1727 vs 1584), a stronger serve (63.4% vs 60.5% of service points won) and more wins on hard courts (68 vs 11).

Player Comparison

1809.1 Elo 1804.6

1583.8 Elo (surface) 1726.9

30 Wins 110

11 Wins (surface) 68

11 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.012 Dominance ratio 0.983

63 Rank 34

21.9 Age 27.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Zizou Bergs

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Zizou Bergs

1st Serve In %

61.7%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.0%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.3%

77.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.0%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Zizou Bergs

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

46.8%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

41.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.3%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

29.4%

42.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Merida Aguilar 0 – 0 Zizou Bergs

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-16

2. round

Daniel Merida Aguilar #40

Zizou Bergs #33

6-3 6-2

2 Aces 2

9 Double Faults 6

65 Service Points 42

37 First Serve In 16

31 First Serve Won 14

13 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 0

3 Break Points Faced 3

13 Winners 17

18 Unforced Errors 28

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Zizou Bergs — Prediction