ATP tennis predict — Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ugo Humbert

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 00:55

Predicted probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

21.58%

Ugo Humbert

France

78.42%

Average Odds

2.96 / 1.40

Market probability

32.11% / 67.89%

Why This Prediction?

Ugo Humbert is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1787 vs 1442), a higher Elo rating (1858 vs 1751) and a stronger serve (66.5% vs 59.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1750.9 Elo 1858.0

1442.1 Elo (surface) 1786.7

26 Wins 212

7 Wins (surface) 150

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.901 Dominance ratio 1.164

63 Rank 28

21.9 Age 28.1

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Ugo Humbert

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Ugo Humbert

1st Serve In %

61.7%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%

54.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.0%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.3%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.0%

37.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.13

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Ugo Humbert

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

73.2%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.3%

71.1%

Break Points Converted %

29.4%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Merida Aguilar 0 – 0 Ugo Humbert

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-06

2. round

Daniel Merida Aguilar #63

Ugo Humbert #28

6-3 6-3

4 Aces 4

7 Double Faults 4

79 Service Points 55

43 First Serve In 39

30 First Serve Won 29

13 Second Serve Won 7

9 Break Points Saved 1

13 Break Points Faced 2

0 Winners 0

0 Unforced Errors 0

2.9 Average Odds 1.4

Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ugo Humbert — Prediction