ATP tennis predict
← Back to Predictions

Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Titouan Droguet — Prediction

ATP Clay Umag · QF

Predicted probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

42.12%

Titouan Droguet

France

57.88%

Average Odds

1.63  /  2.25

Market probability

57.99%  /  42.01%

Why This Prediction?

Titouan Droguet is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (67.6% vs 55.6% of service points won), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1798 vs 1755) and more wins on clay courts (64 vs 50).

Player Comparison

1717.4 Elo 1747.2
1755.2 Elo (surface) 1797.5
22 Wins 39
15 Wins (surface) 17
10 Last 15 form 10
2 Head-to-head wins 1
0.955 Dominance ratio 1.009
82 Rank 119
21.8 Age 25.1
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Titouan Droguet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Titouan Droguet

1st Serve In %

61.7%
56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%
70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.8%
45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%
27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%
50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.39
0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38
0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.0%
—

1st Serve Points Won %

62.3%
—

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%
—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.0%
—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%
—

Aces per Service Game

0.13
0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28
0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Daniel Merida Aguilar Titouan Droguet

Break Points Saved %

67.2%
58.3%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%
42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

49.3%
68.0%

Break Points Converted %

29.4%
43.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Daniel Merida Aguilar 2 – 1 Titouan Droguet

Clay Umag · 2026-07-16

QF

Daniel Merida Aguilar #82

Titouan Droguet #119

6-1 6-3
1 Aces 1
2 Double Faults 3
42 Service Points 47
28 First Serve In 24
24 First Serve Won 11
9 Second Serve Won 13
0 Break Points Saved 3
0 Break Points Faced 7
22 Winners 12
13 Unforced Errors 24
1.6 Average Odds 2.2
Clay Bucharest · 2026-03-30

QF

Daniel Merida Aguilar #136

Titouan Droguet #122

4-6 7-6(7) 3-1 RET
1 Aces 2
0 Double Faults 2
98 Service Points 80
85 First Serve In 52
56 First Serve Won 36
4 Second Serve Won 15
9 Break Points Saved 3
11 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Us Open · 2025-08-25

Q2

Daniel Merida Aguilar #170

Titouan Droguet #159

6-4 3-6 6-4
1 Aces 6
3 Double Faults 3
81 Service Points 99
54 First Serve In 49
42 First Serve Won 35
16 Second Serve Won 27
1 Break Points Saved 3
2 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Royan CH · 2025-06-16

SF

Titouan Droguet #225

Daniel Merida Aguilar #250

7-6(4) 6-2
3 Aces 2
1 Double Faults 6
63 Service Points 91
45 First Serve In 67
32 First Serve Won 39
13 Second Serve Won 10
7 Break Points Saved 4
8 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Daniel Merida Aguilar — Last 10

L W W L W W L W W W

Titouan Droguet — Last 10

W W L W W W W W W W